Thoughts on the Porepunkah tragedy.
Prologue - The author in no way supports the actions of anyone involved in this opinion piece, nor intends to glorify crime or criminals of any persuasion.
The thoughts and or facts shared within are based on hearsay and limited available evidence, this piece should be treated as entirely speculative on the writers part.
August 26th.
The unusual case of currently missing and wanted alleged murderer Dezi Freeman aka (Desmond Filby) has been a public matter since first reported both in the new Mainstream media channels online and the old less popular establishment media via free broadcasts and cheap news papers.
While it is not as widely reported on as one may think a situation of this magnitude should be, it is indeed a public matter of interest and one worthy of discussion surrounding the topics involved.
The author is engaged in pure speculation and readers should not take any opinions shared as any evidence of anything.
From the beginning as the public is informed.
Initial reports can be found online as stating various things as facts ,founded or unfounded.
These include but are not limited to.
At Approx 10:30 am, it is alleged that one Dezi Freeman (Desmond Filby) opened fire on police executing a surprise warrant, This has also been described by police as a Covert warrant, and media as simply a search warrant.
The reason for the warrant has not been released to the public, however multiple sources of media including the police have said publicly that it was regarding previous sexual assault charges.
At this time approx 10:30 it is alleged the alleged offender had caused fatal injuries to 2 officers and a non fatal injury to a 3rd.
After which he was able to acquire the firearms of the deceased officers and disappear.
The search begings.
Officially there is no publicly recorded time for the instigation for a manhunt.
However news breaks by 2pm.
This is roughly 3 to 4 hours after an incident took place at the location known to be the residence of Dezi freeman (Desmond Filby).
A 7.5 km radius no-fly zone was established over the search area by Victoria Police until 11:30 pm on 31 August, however it is not known to me how long after 10:30am on the 26th this was established.
Thus far the alleged offender is still at large currently over 220 hours later.
Updates include only news from family, the questioning of "friends" or people he was known to and investigative journalism into the alleged offenders past.
On 1 September, police stated they believed that members of the Porepunkah community knew where Freeman was hiding, and that they were helping him hide.
The investigations and manhunt are ongoing.
What my speculative opinion is based on.
My interest in evasion techniques began young under 10 when watching a film called 'The mountain men' where the protagonist Tyler is captured by a native American tribe, he is then let go with a spear and about 1 minute head start before the whole tribe begins to chase/hunt him down in attempts to kill him, he successfully evades them.
Later to experiences I was able to achieve similar success in childhood games.
As an adult I have been responsible for finding a missing person in outback Australia during an extensive police search, a long story perhaps for another blog.
That coupled with finding 3 camp sites regularly used by Australias most wanted at that time, having reported them, and even posted a map to social media showing the location they would be found as a 25kms radius circle about 24 hours before they were apprehended.
I feel no need to continue here as I do not wish to appear to toot my own horn, but people who know me know I have experience in the bush, tracking, evading, survival, reconnaissance and exploration etc.
None of this counts for anything and I am not qualified nor claim to be an expert.
The following is simply my immediate train of thought and personal process of deduction with barely any idea of the alleged perpetrators skill set or knowledge of the local area.
Beginning at the start I heard of the reports on X approximately 4 or 5 pm.
I made this post below with the quote
"People on social media who didn't know where Porepunkah is 3 hours ago be like"...
My brother who had come to stay for 3 nights arrived around this time, I helped him unpack etc, He had heard the news on the long drive to my place via local radio and of course knowing me had to ask what I thought.
This was around 6pm and there wasn't much to say, we had dinner and I checked online to see any updates at which time I gave my honest appraisal of the situation as best I could know it.
I basically said he is fucked, If not right now eventually.
Then I stood by what I know to be true based on probability and past situations of the same or very similar nature, I said to my brother give it 24 hours, even then with no faith in media coverage I reminded him of the old rule, If they don't get him within the first 48 hours then we will have a lot to discuss as the situation changes drastically and rapidly.
After 48 hours the chances of them finding him in any capacity drop to half and lose another 10% for every day after.
At this point I mentioned that if he was still not apprehended or found dead within 8 days I may write what I am writing now.
48 hours after the incident.
At this point more information was coming to light, including the fact that it all happened around 10:30am on the Tuesday, which gave me a bearing to work from, so by lunchtime Thursday the 28th it had been roughly 50 hours and no reports of capture or a known location were forthcoming.
Add to this I now had a map to glass of the Mt Buffalo area, weather reports for the last 2 days and forecasts, as well as a bit more of the alleged criminals history.
As intel goes it wasn't much but enough for me to fairly predict this would be a long manhunt now no matter what, The list of potential conclusions was small.
Early potential conclusions.
1- He (the alleged perpetrator) is already dead, By his own hand or the police.
2- He is still in the search zone.
3- He has escaped the search zone.
100 hours after the incident.
Even more has come to light, By the end of day 4 the weather has hampered the search efforts, His chances of successful evasion ramp up to a probability of 70%.
This is where old cases can be relied on for examples of how it can be done.
The cases include The Stocco's, Malcolm Naden etc using just Australia as a recent reference, Many criminals have been as close or closer to capture than Dezi and some with a lot less expertise, knowledge of terrain or physical fitness.
The 2 above examples evaded police for 10 and 7 years respectively with many multiple close encounters during the time period they were at large.
*Note I am not using old cases like the Kelly's or Mad dog Morgan and captain Moonlight etc because it is not the 1800's it is 2025.
Around this time some anomalies begin to appear, fodder for the conspiracy minded I joked about just a few hours after the incident.
Mark my words I am not trying to piece together the motivation, circumstances or draw any conclusions regarding the whole story yet to be told.
However some irregularities give me better insight into the thought processes behind Dezi and the situation, apart from a clear mental illness barely being acknowledged before the 26th.
This must have been known to the 10 officers who showed up to execute what has been described as executing a secret warrant, a covert warrant and simply a standard warrant.
They must've also known he was due in court on the following Friday.
It is obvious they were expecting trouble or non compliance, only a fool would try to deny this fact now.
Add to this the changing reason for the warrant which has not been made public, rather we have multiple reports for varying reasons.
These things alone begin to paint a picture of the alleged perpetrators psychology, with notable stand outs being he was prepared, (Current news even goes as far at to say the whole thing was "premeditated").
As If you can premeditate a covert warrant?
In any case it is 20/20 hindsight that suggests he was in fact ready for the outcome we have so far.
And in this way it is silly to assume this just spontaneously happened and Dezi ran with no clue where or what he may do as a result.
As mentioned it was Sept 1st, 6 days into the manhunt when police finally came out and said they think people were helping him, I for one do not think this a cop out (pun intended) on behalf of the police as some excuse for their failure thus far.
Rather Dezi knew his escape route long before the police even considered he might have one, and this possibly included help or friends in some way.
168 hours after the incident.
My suspicion leads me to be willing to gamble that he is no longer in the currently active search zone or surrounds.
At this time the search zone has expanded beyond the 7.5km radius.
I would reduce the probability to 10%.
With a 100% successful evasion so far and 90% probability of not being anywhere near where they are searching this may take years.
There are no shortage of similar cases.
At this point I would say the next 10 days will reduce the probability of Dezi being found in or around the area of Mt Buffalo by 1% per day until the 15th of September, after which no doubt even the number of police and ADF searching will drastically reduce, partly with the knowledge that even speculation like mine is a somewhat reasonable argument to discontinue.
220 hours after the incident.
I sit here typing this having only put finger to keyboard just hours ago to try and explain my thought process.
I really should take longer to explain my unfounded reasoning with better context.
My basic suspicion is that Dezi fled to a nearby safe location, 7.5kms was pathetic as an initial radius, even in that terrain people like Mark May or Malcolm Naden could and did easily escape in 3 to 5 hours, now add the adrenaline of having just committed murder and covering 20kms in 12 hours would be achievable.
Given the weather in the first 48 hours 20 to 40kms of some of the roughest country could be possible, maybe even more.
And that's not including the possibility of being drug assisted.
Many other evasive tactics can be employed in the time given, Including but not limited to the old classics, doubling back, zig zag, Mantis movements, distraction sites, covering tracks etc, The rain alone would hamper dogs, many things appear to have favoured his evasive maneuvers so far.
In conclusion my running theory (pun intended) is an Occams razor at this stage.
Dezi ran to a safe place, adrenaline pumping he did not stop long, then he employed Mantis movements, stopping frequently to assess the situation, eventually arriving at a local friends place.
The final straw is the fact that there has still been no bounty offered, leaving no incentive for anyone to report his whereabouts.
From this point either hidden in a safe place Anne Frank style, or into the boot of a car for a trip to who knows where...
I would bet on the latter by now, and suggest he is well outside of the current search area.
None of this suggests there will be an end to this insanity anytime soon...
Lastly I will just make the point that with every passing hour increases the chance of a Jerilderie style letter, perhaps a video or some such in which Dezi tries to justify his actions and or affirm his mental state.
Such actions may change the trajectory of the hunt so a key hinge relies on Dezi's ability to maintain radio silence, If he can do that his chances of continued evasion remain highly achievable for a very long time.
The tragedy of Porepunkah has no less than 3 lives destroyed so far, with a very real threat of more to come.
I will not be surprised if Dezi is still Australias most wanted and at large in 2026.
P.S. 6th September update : Police have issued a $1million reward for information leading to his capture.
Epilogue- The author acknowledges the impacts on family, friends and the community of Porepunkah with sympathy to all involved directly or indirectly.
Experience has shown that events of this nature are repeated historically far too often.
This example of criminality deserves to be learned from for future generations and I make no apology for my speculative views regarding these matters.
I wish this was over or never happened as much or more than anyone.
With regards
Jayman. W. Newell 5 September 2025.
Published 6th Sept.
***Edit 12/Sept/2025
At this point it has been 17 days since the incident at Porepunkah, I am not at all surprised by what can and should be described as complete incompetence, as in the case where I found a missing person (again I am not qualified or officially trained in tracking), I would have expected better from paid and trained professionals.
Further proof that police are revenue raisers, under equipped, poorly trained and in no way should have been sent to do the task asked of them.
From the failure to execute a warrant which we must assume was of the arrest nature, to the failure to contain or maintain active pursuit of the assailant, it is clear and sheer incompetence.
This leads me to my update, and a predicted opinion, Dezi is not dead, the $1-million reward now offered is testament to that fact, he is no longer in the immediate search area, speculative however undeniably plausible, and the potential for this manhunt to last well into next year is more likely than any other alternative outcome.
Australia is renowned for this kind of scenario, as mentioned previously even in modern times it is not unusual to have a man on top of Australia's Most Wanted list for months or years at a time.
In any case, mentally unwell does not mean mentally unprepared to do what Dezi has done so far, nor does it reduce the chances of continued successful evasion from the Authorities.
Far from it, converse to some opinions it may actually be an advantage.
Not only is this not over, It will not be over for a long time to come...
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